The central bank's GDPNow tracker of incoming metrics is indicating that gross domestic product is on pace to shrink by 1.5%.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is projecting a contraction of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.5 percent in the first quarter, flashing a warning sign for the U.S. economy. The projection is a significant shift for the Atlanta Fed over the last few weeks that comes a little more than a month after

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model on Friday lowered its forecast for the U.S. economy to a contraction at a 1.5% annual rate. This would be the first quarterly contraction in the economy since the first quarter of 2022.