By the end of the century, a shrinking atmosphere could create a minefield for satellites, like those deployed by SpaceX's Starlink.

The growing release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere could pose a serious threat to the future of space operations, especially in low Earth orbit (LEO). A recent study published in Nature explores the potential consequences of increased emissions on the capacity of LEO to support satellite operations.

The current state of Earth's climate has no recorded precedent. The consequences of the sheer volume of anthropogenic greenhouse emissions on low Earth orbit has not been explored in detail. We know that these gases cause the shrinking of the thermosphere – the layer of atmosphere between altitudes of around 85 and 600 kilometers.

MIT aerospace engineers have found that greenhouse gas emissions are changing the environment of near-Earth space in ways that, over time, will reduce the number of satellites that can sustainably operate there.